League Defies Problems the Medium Is Having, Helped Along by Smart Marketing, High-Def and Online, Says Horizon’s Brad Agate
Published by Advertising Age on January 29th, 2010

It’s getting harder and harder to assemble big audiences around expensive network TV, where prime-time ratings in the fourth quarter just declined another 7% from a year earlier and the highest-rated program of all time remains the “M*A*S*H” finale — in February 1983. Even cable TV saw ratings slide in the final quarter of last year.

But the National Football League doesn’t have those problems.

And it’s not just the Super Bowl, where a close game on Feb. 7 might finally surpass the last “M*A*S*H” and its 106 million viewers as the top TV program in history.

The NFL’s marketing genius, embrace of digital platforms and even the spread of high-definition TV have combined to draw bigger and bigger audiences in the post-season, the regular season and even the off-season.

Dominant performance, many beneficiaries

While all kinds of proliferating competition kept creating problems for so many others, the NFL turned out a regular season with more viewers than any other season since 1990. No other TV property can come close to making that claim.

But at least the 2009 regular season was a ratings bonanza for all five networks that carry NFL games.

The highest rated prime-time program on NBC during the fourth quarter was, once again, “Sunday Night Football.” Through the course of the regular season NBC’s games averaged 19.4 million viewers, whether they watched live or time-shifted on the same day, an increase of 17% from the 2008 season. Fox coverage of the primarily larger market NFC teams averaged 19.1 million viewers for its Sunday afternoon package, an increase of 12% from the previous year. Similarly, the CBS package of AFC games averaged 17.1 million viewers on Sunday afternoon, an increase of 7% from 2008.

The NFL’s impact was even greater on cable TV. ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” franchise averaged 14.4 million viewers in 2009, gaining a very healthy 20% over the year before. One of ESPN’s highlights came on Oct. 5, when Minnesota’s Brett Favre made his greatly anticipated return to Green Bay and played against his old team. The game averaged 21.8 million viewers — the most watched cablecast in history and the top TV show, whether cable or broadcast, of the week.

Top two shows in a week

Later in the season ESPN’s “Monday Night Football” became TV’s most-watched program of the week with a Nov. 30 match-up between the New England Patriots and the now-Super Bowl-bound New Orleans Saints that averaged 21.4 million viewers. The second-most watched show of that week, moreover, was the Sunday Football Game on NBC in which the Vikings and Cardinals averaged 20.9 million viewers.

Of the five networks carrying games, however, the league’s own NFL Network reported the healthiest increase in viewers. The 4-year-old network averaged 5.5 million viewers for its eight late-season prime-time games, an increase of 48% from 2008. And it eclipsed its previous high of 10.1 million viewers, for a Green Bay-Dallas match-up in November 2007, when a blizzard on the East Coast and a marquee match-up between the Cowboys and the previously undefeated Saints averaged 10.5 million viewers on Dec. 19.

The NFL’s phenomenal ratings roll continued into January and the post-season. Before the post-season began there was only one program, the college football championship game, that averaged more than 30 million viewers. By contrast, of the 10 post-season NFL games prior to the Super Bowl, seven averaged more than 30 million viewers.

The ratings of NBC, CBS and Fox were all up significantly when compared to last season’s post-season. For the first round of the playoffs, aka Wild Card Weekend, audience delivery arrived up 16% for the two games on NBC and up 15% on both games on CBS and Fox. For the divisional playoff round the following week the audience levels for the two games on CBS and Fox grew by 11% and 18% respectively.

The NFL’s ratings romp then hit high gear for the conference championship games of Jan. 24. The AFC Championship Game on CBS, in which the New York Jets faced the Indianapolis Colts, averaged 46.9 million viewers, an increase of 15% from last year’s match-up and the highest mark for an AFC Championship Game since 1986, when New England played Miami. Later that day the NFC Championship Game on Fox, in which the Favre’s Vikings faced the Saints, averaged 57.9 million viewers — a whopping 51% over last year’s contest. The game became the most-watched contest since a Dallas-San Francisco match-up in 1982.

Technology might actually be helping

The NFL can’t take credit for the spread of high-definition TV, but it’s certainly benefiting. According to Nielsen, sports are the “killer app” on HDTV, with sports ratings 21% higher on HD sets than non-HD sets last year. With the TV industry planning to roll out 3D TV, football games are poised to benefit too, as depth perception is added that lets viewers gauge the separation between offensive and defensive players.

The NFL is also probably helping its case on live TV by diving into the new platforms technology has delivered. The league is using NFL.com, social networks, video gaming and micro-blogging to reach out to new consumers such as women and ethnic groups. NFL games are also available online. The Saints-Cowboys game on Dec. 19 attracted more than 1 million streams, a record.

On cable and satellite, last year the NFL made its Red Zone Channel widely available, allowing viewers get real-time highlights and to look-in at other games being played outside their home market. This year the NFL plans to make this channel available to subscribers’ cellphones.

The NFL has become a year-round, global marketing machine. It has turned off-season activities such as the four-day NFL Scouting Combine into televised events; the college draft attracted 39 million viewers in 2009. And it has scheduling regular season games in London and Mexico City, with other games planned. Last season the Super Bowl was carried by 61 global broadcasters.

Big sports events often depend on the match-up to attract viewers. The most watched NBA Championship Game over the past five years, for example, occurred in 2008. The reason was the match-up featuring two of the NBA’s most storied franchises and greatest rivals: the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. Viewership for the 2009 World Series, marking the New York Yankees’ first appearance in the Fall Classic since 2003, was 42% higher than the previous year and the most watched since 2004, when the Boston Red Sox “reversed the curse.” And the College Football Championship Game has averaged more than 30 million viewers only twice, in 2006 and 2010, when the two combatants were undefeated.

This year’s Super Bowl pits each conference’s top-seeded team against the other for the first time since 1993, but the teams also represent two of the smaller markets in the NFL.

It shouldn’t be a problem. Traditionally it has been the Super Bowl itself and its ads that attract viewers to the NFL championship. And the last two Super Bowls have been the most-watched in the game’s 43-year history, attracting 97.5 million viewers in 2008 and 98.7 million viewers in 2009. Coupled with the NFL setting record audiences this season, this Super Bowl is likely to average 100 million viewers. And if the game is competitive, we might see one more record fall.

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Television trends and patterns continue to evolve. For example, not long ago situation comedies dominated the most watched programs on television. Each network had at least one night a week (and sometimes more) for a “made for TV movie”, you could count on a blockbuster mini-series or two to air during the sweeps, and you could watch a top rated show on either a Friday or Saturday night. Of course today, none of these facts are true. Another soon to be fond network television memory seems to be a top rated and cutting edge drama running at ten o’clock to anchor that evening’s program lineup.

Between 1979 and 2009, many high profile and critically acclaimed dramas could be counted on to run at 10PM. In fact, for 21 consecutive years beginning in 1979 the Emmy Award for Best Drama went to a program airing at 10PM on one of the three networks. In the past decade however, not one 10PM program on broadcast TV was an Emmy winner. With ER and Boston Legal stopping production in 2009, it appears that after three decades, the Golden Age of 10PM dramas has, at last, come to an end on network TV.

Since it fell outside of the so-called “family hour”, the broadcast networks could focus on more adult themed content at 10PM. For example, Hill Street Blues was noted for its grittiness in working in a seedy inner city police precinct. Cagney & Lacey, another police drama, was critically acclaimed for depicting the difficulties women confronted in the workforce and their home life. NYPD Blue broke barriers for having partial nudity and using language not typically heard on broadcast television. The challenges and self indulgences of young adults were effectively chronicled with thirtysomething. The first bisexual TV character was depicted on L.A. Law, she also kissed a female colleague on the lips, another television first. The prime time “soap opera” Dallas introduced viewers to the season ending cliffhanger with “Who Shot JR?.” Throughout the summer of 1980, the nation was transfixed on who the would-be assassin was. The culprit was revealed in an episode watched by 83 million people (on a Friday night no less) at 10PM. The last ratings titan at 10PM was ER which after 15 years ceased production in 2009. ER was the last top rated show to air at 10PM a decade ago. Other cutting edge and acclaimed series that aired primarily at 10PM in the 1980’s or 1990’s were Twin Peaks, Miami Vice, Northern Exposure, Lou Grant, China Beach, St. Elsewhere, Picket Fences and The Practice. These dramas could be found on any given night.

In recent years however, while dramas (and reality shows) dominate in ratings, these programs are not airing at earlier than 10PM. For example, a large majority of the top rated shows in 2008-09 such as American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, NCIS, CSI, 60 Minutes, Desperate Housewives, Survivor, Grey’s Anatomy, Criminal Minds & The Mentalist all aired at either 8PM or 9PM. Of the four 10PM shows that cracked the top 20 only two, CSI: Miami and CSI: NY, are returning as Without a Trace and Eleventh Hour were both cancelled. Other critically acclaimed dramas such as Lost, House, 24, Law & Order, Fringe and Heroes are now seen at an earlier time period.

The difficulty in finding a hit program to run at 10PM is compounded with rising production costs for a one-hour drama. The cost to produce a single episode of a one-hour drama on network television is in the $2 to $3 million range. This prompted NBC to air The Jay Leno Show weeknights at 10PM, a program that is notably less costly to produce.

While 10PM has been slightly stronger this year with The Mentalist moving one hour later and The Good Wife starting out strong, there is another disturbing trend; the shows at 10PM have a much older audience profile. In fact, of the 19 programs that air 10PM this season, 17 of them have a median age above 50. Since advertisers pay a premium to reach younger viewers, advertising costs can be notably lower while production costs continue to rise.

Another reason for the loss in popularity at 10PM has been the impact that time shifting with DVR’s has had. A report from Nielsen on how DVR’s are changing the television landscape found that 10PM shows now not only compete against each other but also programs that air earlier that evening, and are played back at 10PM. The study found that over the course of one week, 53% of 8PM are played back in the same day, 42% of 9PM shows and only 27% of 10PM shows. After three days, 89% of all 8PM shows are played back, 87% of 9PM shows but only 82% of 10PM shows are watched. As television moves to a more “on-demand” and “TV Everywhere” environment, 10PM will be less and less important.

If one wants to watch cutting edge dramas at 10PM these days they can always turn to cable. They have been very aggressive in producing breakthrough dramas scheduled for 10PM. AMC airs both their Emmy Award winning dramas Mad Men and Breaking Bad at 10PM. FX airs many of its gritty and original programs at 10PM such as Damages, Nip/Tuck, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, Rescue Me and Sons of Anarchy. Previously FX had aired its cutting edge police drama The Shield at 10PM. Cable’s top rated network USA, has also used 10PM to run some of cable’s highest rated shows Psych, Royal Pains and In Plain Sight. TNT has also used 10PM for Raising the Bar, Dark Blue and Leverage. Lifetime’s top rated original series Army Wives is seen at 10PM.

Moreover, many cable originals have been able to cast familiar actors for their series. There are less episodes to produce each year allowing cast members to work on other projects such as movies and plays. Also, the chances of getting cancelled mid-season are remote, allowing them to avoid the indignity of getting axed mid-year. On the other hand, many cable dramas at 10PM suffer from the same older audience profile that the broadcasters at 10PM face.

The 10PM time period on cable is not just limited to provocative dramas but also other formats. At 10PM viewers can watch reality shows like Project Runway on Lifetime, Real Housewives on Bravo or Real World on MTV. Even the popular and risqué South Park on Comedy Central is on at 10PM.

Many of television program’s shock value have migrated to pay cable; they are not concerned with either FCC regulators or advertisers. In the past decade, both HBO and Showtime have produced original (and Award winning) series that have become ingrained in pop culture. Although they may not all air at 10PM, their content and language has pushed the envelope even further than any broadcast television can.

With the networks becoming more timid at 10PM, (perhaps in response to the FCC crackdown stemming from the “Wardrobe Malfunction”), the continued aggressiveness of cable networks and more and more viewers time shifting, perhaps Fox had the right idea all along when they began rolling out their prime time schedule. The most watched network among Adults 18-49 for the past few seasons has never programmed at 10PM when they began to roll out their schedule 20 years ago, opting to give the last hour of prime time to their affiliates. Based upon current trends can the three other networks be far behind?

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In February, the broadcast networks air three of their highest-rated specials, the Super Bowl, the Grammy Awards and the Academy Awards, in what would typically be the “sweeps.” The only problem is that this year, February sweeps have been delayed to accommodate the transition to digital TV on Feb. 17, which apparently will now most likely be delayed until June 12 (the February sweeps in 2009 will begin on March 5). The other major problem? Two of these shows, the Grammy Awards and the Academy Awards, have been in a ratings tailspin.

Last year’s Academy Awards were reportedly the lowest-rated in 39 years, attracting only 32 million viewers (live plus same day), and marking a decline in viewing for the fifth straight year.

Photo Credit: AP

And it’s not just those two high-profile award shows that have suffered audience erosion annually. Virtually every other annual award show is undergoing the same fate.

Last year’s Academy Awards were reportedly the lowest-rated in 39 years, attracting only 32 million viewers (live plus same day). This marked the fifth straight year the Academy Awards reported a decline in viewing. ABC has dropped the cost of a thirty-second commercial to $1.4 million for 2009 (from $1.7 million). The Oscars will also accept movie ads, with certain restrictions, for the first time.

The Grammy Awards have not fared much better, averaging only 17.2 million viewers, among the lowest in years. The audience for the Grammy Awards has also been in a steady downward spiral. In 2008, the Grammy Awards telecast was 3 hours and 40 minutes, the longest since 1992.

Not just Grammys and Oscars
The decline in award shows is not limited to the Oscars and Grammys. Many other award shows on broadcast TV have suffered their lowest or near-lowest ratings in 2008 or 2009.

For example, the 2008 Primetime Emmy Awards drew only 12.3 million viewers, a drop of 33% since 2005. The audience levels were comparable to the 1990 Emmy Awards, the least-watched in history. The 2008 Daytime Emmy Awards followed suit, attracting only 5.4 million viewers and a measly 1.2 rating for adults 18-49. (While honoring daytime TV, the award show airs in prime-time, most recently in June.) The Tony Awards, one of the lowest-rated award shows on TV, continues to suffer from poor audience levels. The 2008 show generated only 6.3 million viewers, a slight increase from 2007 but a drop of 18% from 2006. The Tony Awards averaged a paltry 1.1. rating among adults 18-49.

While the writers strike wreaked havoc with the 2008 People’s Choice Awards and Golden Globe Awards, the audience for both award shows in 2009 did not bounce back from 2007. The ratings for the 2009 Golden Globes were the lowest since it moved to broadcast TV from cable in 1996. Total viewers were down 24% when compared with 2007. The 2009 People’s Choice Awards averaged 9.4 million viewers. The audience for the award show has been in steady decline before reaching its nadir in 2009.

Recent drop
The audience delivery of other award shows such as the American Music Awards, ACM Awards and CMA Awards have actually held in recent years. Nonetheless, the ratings have not held compared with just a few years ago.

What has happened to award shows? Besides the obvious answers such as the continued fractionalization of TV, the shows are too long, there is a glut of award shows on broadcast and cable, many of the nominees televised are too obscure, and too much time is spent on the less-prestigious categories. There are also some other factors to consider.

The award shows are becoming passe with the changing tastes of viewers, especially younger viewers. Award shows, similar to beauty pageants, have been on TV since the early days. While there are still beauty pageants on network TV (e.g., Miss Universe, Miss USA), they are also reporting the same steady audience erosion that many awards shows have recorded. The once top-rated Miss America pageant has even moved to cable after an abysmal showing in 2004.

Audiences getting older
The current median age of award shows proves younger viewers are less interested in these types of shows. Many now have a median audience age of above 50, and are getting older each year. The most recent airing of the Primetime Emmys had a median viewer age of 52.1, the Daytime Emmys was 58.4, the People’s Choice Awards 50.8, the Tony Awards 61.3 and the ACM Awards was 54.7. Other award shows are at the very high end of the key 18-49 demographic, including the Academy Awards at 49.5 and the CMA Awards at 49.9. Only the 2008 Grammy Awards at 45.2 (up from 38.2 in 2004, however) and the American Music Awards at 40.2 fall comfortably within the desired demographic for marketers.

Award shows now face competition from the surplus of reality programs on TV. Award shows too are, at the root, unscripted or partially unscripted competition shows, not too dissimilar from “Dancing with the Stars,” “American Idol” or “The Apprentice” (to name only a few). This was brought to light humorously during the 2008 Primetime Emmy Awards, when Jimmy Kimmel announced that “the winner for the most outstanding host of a reality show or reality competition show is … going to be revealed when we come back after this break.” For the record, Jeff Probst beat out Heidi Klum, Howie Mandel, Ryan Seacrest and Tom Bergeron to win the Emmy in the new category.

Today performers have become overexposed by celebrity magazines, entertainment-news shows and cable networks, as well as the internet. The everyday movements (some can be embarrassing) of high-profile personalities are followed like never before. Hence, an appearance on TV award shows is no longer the novelty it once was.

Highlights are on web, anyway
If the only interest viewers have in award shows consists of “Who won?” “What was said?” and “What did they wear?” then the web can provide them with all those recaps or reviews almost immediately, instead of watching several hours of the program on TV.

The changing model for music may also have an impact on the Grammy Awards and other music award shows. Today people can easily listen to any song and watch any music video on demand via the internet or MP3 player. This negates the purpose of appointment viewing required with award shows and the aura of watching a “live” performance.

That said, award shows will probably not disappear from the TV prime-time landscape the way Westerns and variety show have. (Although several award shows such as the Billboard Music Awards, the Blockbuster Awards or the American Comedy Awards no longer air on TV.) Award shows are live and less likely to be time-shifted, despite declining ratings. They still deliver higher ratings than most regularly scheduled shows. They can still win their time period and could even be the top-rated show of the week. But there’s no denying that award shows are not the blockbuster events on TV that they use to be. The Oscars have been called “The Super Bowl for Women.” These days “The Super Bowl for Women” is the Super Bowl.

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