Simon Cowell, the often acerbic judge from American Idol, is seriously considering leaving the show after his most recent contract expires in 2010 (or after the program’s ninth season). Cowell cited his hectic schedule, which, besides American Idol, includes appearing on and owning Britain’s Got Talent and The X-Factor as the reasons for wanting to step down. Cowell “commutes” from London to Los Angeles and back every week, making for an exhausting lifestyle.

The possibility of Cowell leaving American Idol is sending ripples across the television industry. Since its inception in 2002, Cowell has been an instrumental part of the show. His loss would be disastrous to the reality show as well as its network Fox. Although American Idol is a reality show, his departure would have the same type of negative impact that it would if Alan Alda had left MASH or Ted Danson had left Cheers. Simply put, Ryan Seacrest, Paula Abdul and others are co-stars, but there is no doubt that Simon Cowell is the star of television’s most watched program. Cowell (along with Anne Robinson of The Weakest Link) even helped to create the authoritative and at times snarky British reality show personality. This was later copied but never equaled (with viewers or ad dollars) by Gordon Ramsey (Hell’s Kitchen), Len Goodman (Dancing with the Stars) and Jo Frost (Supernanny). With the ratings for the American Idol beginning to slip, keeping Cowell on the program must be a top priority.

American Idol has been the reason for propelling Fox in becoming the top rated network among Adults 18-49 for the past three seasons. Before “Idol” ramps up in January, Fox finds itself mired in fourth place. The show premieres, and lo and behold, Fox is soon the top rated network. Besides, American Idol serves as a platform to launch or popularize other programs on Fox. The most notable has been House. The audience for the drama in its first season were lackluster until it was partnered with American Idol, since then it has become a bona fide top ten program on television. A lower rated “Idol” would not help the ratings challenged shows on Fox.

Another factor is cost. The cost for a thirty-second ad on American Idol this season is roughly $650,000, making it the most expensive regularly scheduled program on television, more four times the cost of an average thirty-second commercial. The program also generates dollars from product placement by Coca-Cola, AT&T and Ford Motor. While production costs for American Idol are lower than entertainment shows, ad rates will surely plummet, as demand subsides, if Cowell decides not to re-up.

While the competing broadcast networks should be ecstatic about a suddenly more vulnerable American Idol (and Fox), it could mark the end of an era. American Idol is the only show on television that regularly attracts 25 million viewers or three times the amount of cable’s top program. The other networks are quick to point out the power of broadcast television in its ability to attract more viewers than cable; the gap between the top rated broadcast and cable shows will notably decrease.

Fox does have several options in attempting to keep Simon Cowell on the show. The most obvious is to pay the wealthy Cowell even more money. Another solution is moving American Idol from Los Angeles to New York cutting his commute in half. Of course, Fox could also bring back the Concorde.

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April 2, 2009 will mark the end of an epic television show, the series finale of ER on NBC. Since its premiere in September 1994, the critically acclaimed drama has been nominated for a record 122 Emmy Awards, winning 22 of them. ER had been the anchor for NBC’s extraordinarily successful “Must See TV” lineup of top rated comedies. ER was no ratings slouch either. In its earlier seasons, ER was the top rated program on broadcast television and holds the distinction (along with Seinfeld) of being the last program in television to average a household rating of 20 for an entire season in 1997-98. To illustrate how fragmented television has become since then, this year you will be able to count on one hand the number of telecasts that will achieve 20 household rating. This year top rated programs may not even attain a 15 rating.

Many of the top rated finales have given viewers closure; they found the one-armed man on The Fugitive and all the employees from the newsroom at WJM-TV were fired except for the anchor Ted Baxter. With the popularity of the M*A*S*H finale, these series finales evolved into a television event. Since that time, the most popular finales have been a part of NBC’s Thursday night lineup. The Cheers finale attracted 80 million viewers, Seinfeld 76 million viewers, Friends 52 million, The Cosby Show 44 million and Family Ties 36 million, all five of these shows rank among the ten most watched series finales in TV history (see chart below).

While ER has aired on Thursday longer than any show on NBC, the audience for their finale will fall far short. There are several reasons for that, first is that the most popular finales are all comedies, very few popular finales are dramas. In fact, if you include the Johnny Carson finale on The Tonight Show (a comedy/variety show), nine of the ten most watched finales have been comedies. The only drama ranking in the top ten was Magnum PI which ended as two-hour CBS Sunday Night Movie. One could conclude that the finales for long running dramas are not as popular as long running comedies, even Thursday night dramas on NBC such as Hill Street Blues and L.A. Law.

Unlike many of the comedy finales, there is no single cast member left on ER since its inaugural season in 1994-95 (although ER is bringing back many prominent cast members that had left the show). So unlike Alan Alda, Ted Danson, the quartet on Seinfeld, the sextet on Friends or the Keatons or the Huxtables, there is no central figure(s) for the drama remaining since its early years. The ratings for ER, like most long running shows, have suffered a significant drop in viewers through the years. One reason for the drop has been the growth in the number of channels available to viewers over the past fifteen years. In 1995, the average home had 41 channels, that figure has more than tripled.

Besides the growth in the number of viewing choices, there has been a major effort by cable networks to provide quality and critically acclaimed programs, especially dramas. In recent years, these dramas have been honored with critical acclaim, as well as its share of Golden Globe and Emmy Awards. In fact, the most recent series finale that achieved any “noise” was HBO’s The Sopranos in June 2007. Although HBO is available in about one-third of all homes, the trendsetting drama drew 11.9 million viewers for its finale, more than several broadcast TV finales. In the future, the programs that get the most publicity may very well be cable original dramas. The only show currently on broadcast TV that could attract a significant amount of viewers would be The Simpsons, it meets the criteria of a long running comedy with popular characters.

AUDIENCE OF SELECTED SERIES FINALES

Total Viewers
Program Network Date HH Rtg. Share (000)
M*A*S*H CBS 28-Feb-83 60.2 77 105.9
Cheers NBC 20-May-93 45.5 64 80.4
Seinfeld NBC 14-May-98 41.3 58 76.3
Friends NBC 6-May-04 29.2 43 52.5
Sunday Movie- Magnum P.I. Finale CBS 1-May-88 32.0 48 50.7
The Cosby Show NBC 30-Apr-92 28.0 45 44.4
Tonight Show (Carson Finale) NBC 22-May-92 27.9 63 41.4
All in the Family CBS 8-Apr-79 26.6 43 40.2
Family Ties NBC 14-May-89 20.8 35 36.3
Home Improvement ABC 25-May-99 21.6 34 35.5
Dallas CBS 3-May-91 22.0 38 33.3
Everybody Loves Raymond CBS 16-May-05 20.2 29 32.9
Gunsmoke CBS 31-Mar-75 20.4 30.9
The Fugitive ABC 29-Aug-67 45.9 72 30.0
Newhart CBS 21-May-90 18.7 29 29.5
The Golden Girls NBC 9-May-92 18.9 38 27.2
Frasier NBC 13-May-04 16.3 25 25.2
Night Court NBC 13-May-92 16.5 26 24.6
That 70’s Show FOX 25-May-06 14.6 25 24.5
St. Elsewhere NBC 25-May-88 17.0 22.5
MacGyver ABC 21-May-92 13.8 26 22.3
L.A. Law NBC 19-May-94 15.9 27 22.1
ALF NBC 24-Mar-90 13.1 24 21.7
Wonder Years ABC 12-May-93 13.9 23 21.0
Growing Pains ABC 25-Apr-92 13.3 24 21.1
Quantum Leap NBC 5-May-93 13.7 23 20.6
Who’s The Boss? ABC 25-Apr-92 12.7 24 20.5
Fresh Prince of Bel-Air NBC 20-May-96 13.1 22 19.9
Mad About You NBC 24-May-99 13.6 20 19.8
Knots Landing CBS 13-May-93 13.9 22 19.6
Bonanza NBC 16-Jan-73 15.3 19.3
Will & Grace NBC 18-May-06 11.5 18 18.4
Facts of Life NBC 7-May-88 13.2 29 18.2
Jake & Fatman CBS 6-May-92 12.9 20 18.1
Major Dad CBS 16-Apr-93 12.6 20 17.9
Murphy Brown CBS 18-May-98 12.3 19 17.5
Roseanne ABC 20-May-97 11.6 19 16.6
NYPD Blue ABC 1-Mar-05 10.4 17 16.1
Miami Vice NBC 28-Jun-89 11.0 21 16.1
Married…with Children FOX 5-May-97 10.0 16 15.2
Kate & Allie CBS 22-May-89 11.9 20 14.9
Dynasty ABC 9-May-89 10.8 17 14.7
Beverly Hills 90210 FOX 17-May-00 9.6 15 14.4
Wings NBC 21-May-97 10.2 16 14.2
JAG CBS 5-Apr-05 9.0 15 14.0
King of Queens CBS 14-May-07 8.8 13 13.5
Providence NBC 20-Dec-02 9.0 16 13.3
X-Files FOX 19-May-02 7.9 12 13.2
Life Goes On ABC 23-May-93 8.9 17 13.2
Coach ABC 14-May-97 9.3 16 13.1
Touched by an Angel CBS 27-Apr-03 8.9 15 12.9
Falcon Crest CBS 17-May-90 9.3 15 12.3
Third Rock from the Sun NBC 22-May-01 7.9 13 11.9
The Sopranos HBO 10-Jun-07 6.5 11 11.9
The Nanny CBS 12-May-99 8.1 14 11.1
Ally McBeal FOX 20-May-02 7.5 11 11.5
The Paractice ABC 16-May-04 7.5 13 10.9
Walker, Texas Ranger CBS 19-May-01 6.8 13 10.8
Judgung Amy CBS 3-May-05 7.6 12 10.8
Sex and the City HBO 22-Feb-04 6.5 10 10.6
Melrose Place FOX 24-May-99 7.3 12 10.4
Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman CBS 16-May-98 6.7 15 10.2
The West Wing NBC 14-May-06 6.2 10 10.1
Mary Tyler Moore CBS 19-Mar-77 25.5
Hill Street Blues NBC 12-May-87 17.0
Beverly Hillbillies CBS 23-Mar-71 18.1

Source: Nielsen Media Research

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