The Presidential inauguration will be the biggest video event of all time, we just won’t know how big.

At 12 noon (EST) on Tuesday, January 20th Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the oath of office to Barack Obama, making him the 44th President of The United States. Besides all the pageantry and balls, the inauguration marks the conclusion of the longest, costliest and most extraordinary political campaigns in history.

Campaign strategists are trendsetters in micromarketing niche consumers (or voters) and in that regard, the Obama campaign was exceptional. In fact, Barack Obama’s campaign strategy was so effective, that in an Advertising Age poll advertisers voted him “Marketer of the Year” for 2008. Barack Obama had succeeded Nintendo and beat out Apple, Nike, Coors and other “products”. The reason for the industry recognition was Obama’s effective use of both traditional media such as direct mail, television and radio blended with new media platforms such as, e-mail blasts, paid search, text messages, social networks and even video games. Meanwhile, his competitors relied primarily on the tried and true mainstream media campaign strategy. Obama’s team was especially effective in attracting “millennials” (18 to 29 year olds) by using a combination of grassroots marketing and these new media channels available. The result not only made younger Americans vote, but also encouraged them to become part of the political process by volunteering. All this media strategy enabled Obama to become a household name and eventually President from a relatively obscure freshman Senator.

Media pundits have concluded that if Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first “Radio President” and John F. Kennedy was the first “Television President” than Barack Obama will be the first “Internet President”. This brings us to January 20th, the oath of office and subsequent inaugural address. This will undoubtedly be among the most watched video events ever. However, we won’t really know just how big a video event it will be. The reason is lack of viewing information across the three screens, television, computer and cell phone, in which the speech can be watched. This issue forced NBC Universal to create Total Audience Measurement Index (or TAMI), which used several audience research companies to measure the various video platforms available that it developed for the Summer Olympics. The inauguration will be available on far more channels than even The Olympics.

Nielsen has been the currency of television ratings for years, (27 million viewers watched Richard Nixon’s first inauguration in January 1969 on the three broadcast networks). With the few exceptions however, Nielsen’s sample consists almost exclusively of in-home viewing in sample households. With Obama’s inauguration occurring on a Tuesday afternoon, people across the country will be watching the event on television sets outside the home, such as offices and schools, these millions will go unmeasured.

Combine that with the millions of Americans watching the inauguration online (with the first Internet President) again at work, in school, or at hotspots around the nation and other locations. Recent major sporting events happening during work hours can gauge the impact of online viewing. According to CBS, 92% of the 4.8 million people streaming March Madness did so at work. The U.S. Open Playoff (golf) on a Monday afternoon had at least four million streams. The inauguration, will be available on far more broadband video outlets, including foreign language websites, it will much higher online numbers. While there are a couple of research companies that can measure online video, many of these websites streaming the speech will be too small for accurate measurement. In all likelihood, an aggregate “census” count all the broadband video websites carrying the speech would depict a more accurate number. Video clips of the speech will also be uploaded and viewed countless times on Facebook and YouTube (both hadn’t existed during the last Presidential inaugural) and other websites. The speech will also be e-mailed across the country and around the world.

Mobile, the third screen, will have the smallest impact on overall viewing, has the least amount of viewing data available, but is the fastest growing. With over ten million phones with video capabilities, the inauguration could draw several million viewers. In all likelihood, most mobile video viewers will be “millennials” who received all those text messages, volunteered and voted last year.

The inauguration will be a watershed event not only for the nation, but also on how Americans can now watch the speech. People will have to opportunity to watch the inauguration on various screens at any location and anytime thereafter. It could be the most watched television event outside the home. It will be the most watched event on broadband video and on mobile television. Unfortunately we will probably never really know how many total viewers there were.

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