April 2, 2009 will mark the end of an epic television show, the series finale of ER on NBC. Since its premiere in September 1994, the critically acclaimed drama has been nominated for a record 122 Emmy Awards, winning 22 of them. ER had been the anchor for NBC’s extraordinarily successful “Must See TV” lineup of top rated comedies. ER was no ratings slouch either. In its earlier seasons, ER was the top rated program on broadcast television and holds the distinction (along with Seinfeld) of being the last program in television to average a household rating of 20 for an entire season in 1997-98. To illustrate how fragmented television has become since then, this year you will be able to count on one hand the number of telecasts that will achieve 20 household rating. This year top rated programs may not even attain a 15 rating.

Many of the top rated finales have given viewers closure; they found the one-armed man on The Fugitive and all the employees from the newsroom at WJM-TV were fired except for the anchor Ted Baxter. With the popularity of the M*A*S*H finale, these series finales evolved into a television event. Since that time, the most popular finales have been a part of NBC’s Thursday night lineup. The Cheers finale attracted 80 million viewers, Seinfeld 76 million viewers, Friends 52 million, The Cosby Show 44 million and Family Ties 36 million, all five of these shows rank among the ten most watched series finales in TV history (see chart below).

While ER has aired on Thursday longer than any show on NBC, the audience for their finale will fall far short. There are several reasons for that, first is that the most popular finales are all comedies, very few popular finales are dramas. In fact, if you include the Johnny Carson finale on The Tonight Show (a comedy/variety show), nine of the ten most watched finales have been comedies. The only drama ranking in the top ten was Magnum PI which ended as two-hour CBS Sunday Night Movie. One could conclude that the finales for long running dramas are not as popular as long running comedies, even Thursday night dramas on NBC such as Hill Street Blues and L.A. Law.

Unlike many of the comedy finales, there is no single cast member left on ER since its inaugural season in 1994-95 (although ER is bringing back many prominent cast members that had left the show). So unlike Alan Alda, Ted Danson, the quartet on Seinfeld, the sextet on Friends or the Keatons or the Huxtables, there is no central figure(s) for the drama remaining since its early years. The ratings for ER, like most long running shows, have suffered a significant drop in viewers through the years. One reason for the drop has been the growth in the number of channels available to viewers over the past fifteen years. In 1995, the average home had 41 channels, that figure has more than tripled.

Besides the growth in the number of viewing choices, there has been a major effort by cable networks to provide quality and critically acclaimed programs, especially dramas. In recent years, these dramas have been honored with critical acclaim, as well as its share of Golden Globe and Emmy Awards. In fact, the most recent series finale that achieved any “noise” was HBO’s The Sopranos in June 2007. Although HBO is available in about one-third of all homes, the trendsetting drama drew 11.9 million viewers for its finale, more than several broadcast TV finales. In the future, the programs that get the most publicity may very well be cable original dramas. The only show currently on broadcast TV that could attract a significant amount of viewers would be The Simpsons, it meets the criteria of a long running comedy with popular characters.

AUDIENCE OF SELECTED SERIES FINALES

Total Viewers
Program Network Date HH Rtg. Share (000)
M*A*S*H CBS 28-Feb-83 60.2 77 105.9
Cheers NBC 20-May-93 45.5 64 80.4
Seinfeld NBC 14-May-98 41.3 58 76.3
Friends NBC 6-May-04 29.2 43 52.5
Sunday Movie- Magnum P.I. Finale CBS 1-May-88 32.0 48 50.7
The Cosby Show NBC 30-Apr-92 28.0 45 44.4
Tonight Show (Carson Finale) NBC 22-May-92 27.9 63 41.4
All in the Family CBS 8-Apr-79 26.6 43 40.2
Family Ties NBC 14-May-89 20.8 35 36.3
Home Improvement ABC 25-May-99 21.6 34 35.5
Dallas CBS 3-May-91 22.0 38 33.3
Everybody Loves Raymond CBS 16-May-05 20.2 29 32.9
Gunsmoke CBS 31-Mar-75 20.4 30.9
The Fugitive ABC 29-Aug-67 45.9 72 30.0
Newhart CBS 21-May-90 18.7 29 29.5
The Golden Girls NBC 9-May-92 18.9 38 27.2
Frasier NBC 13-May-04 16.3 25 25.2
Night Court NBC 13-May-92 16.5 26 24.6
That 70’s Show FOX 25-May-06 14.6 25 24.5
St. Elsewhere NBC 25-May-88 17.0 22.5
MacGyver ABC 21-May-92 13.8 26 22.3
L.A. Law NBC 19-May-94 15.9 27 22.1
ALF NBC 24-Mar-90 13.1 24 21.7
Wonder Years ABC 12-May-93 13.9 23 21.0
Growing Pains ABC 25-Apr-92 13.3 24 21.1
Quantum Leap NBC 5-May-93 13.7 23 20.6
Who’s The Boss? ABC 25-Apr-92 12.7 24 20.5
Fresh Prince of Bel-Air NBC 20-May-96 13.1 22 19.9
Mad About You NBC 24-May-99 13.6 20 19.8
Knots Landing CBS 13-May-93 13.9 22 19.6
Bonanza NBC 16-Jan-73 15.3 19.3
Will & Grace NBC 18-May-06 11.5 18 18.4
Facts of Life NBC 7-May-88 13.2 29 18.2
Jake & Fatman CBS 6-May-92 12.9 20 18.1
Major Dad CBS 16-Apr-93 12.6 20 17.9
Murphy Brown CBS 18-May-98 12.3 19 17.5
Roseanne ABC 20-May-97 11.6 19 16.6
NYPD Blue ABC 1-Mar-05 10.4 17 16.1
Miami Vice NBC 28-Jun-89 11.0 21 16.1
Married…with Children FOX 5-May-97 10.0 16 15.2
Kate & Allie CBS 22-May-89 11.9 20 14.9
Dynasty ABC 9-May-89 10.8 17 14.7
Beverly Hills 90210 FOX 17-May-00 9.6 15 14.4
Wings NBC 21-May-97 10.2 16 14.2
JAG CBS 5-Apr-05 9.0 15 14.0
King of Queens CBS 14-May-07 8.8 13 13.5
Providence NBC 20-Dec-02 9.0 16 13.3
X-Files FOX 19-May-02 7.9 12 13.2
Life Goes On ABC 23-May-93 8.9 17 13.2
Coach ABC 14-May-97 9.3 16 13.1
Touched by an Angel CBS 27-Apr-03 8.9 15 12.9
Falcon Crest CBS 17-May-90 9.3 15 12.3
Third Rock from the Sun NBC 22-May-01 7.9 13 11.9
The Sopranos HBO 10-Jun-07 6.5 11 11.9
The Nanny CBS 12-May-99 8.1 14 11.1
Ally McBeal FOX 20-May-02 7.5 11 11.5
The Paractice ABC 16-May-04 7.5 13 10.9
Walker, Texas Ranger CBS 19-May-01 6.8 13 10.8
Judgung Amy CBS 3-May-05 7.6 12 10.8
Sex and the City HBO 22-Feb-04 6.5 10 10.6
Melrose Place FOX 24-May-99 7.3 12 10.4
Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman CBS 16-May-98 6.7 15 10.2
The West Wing NBC 14-May-06 6.2 10 10.1
Mary Tyler Moore CBS 19-Mar-77 25.5
Hill Street Blues NBC 12-May-87 17.0
Beverly Hillbillies CBS 23-Mar-71 18.1

Source: Nielsen Media Research

admin Uncategorized Research

The advertising dollars that have been allocated to local media have been steadily declining. For example, in 1997 local media counted for 41.2% of all ad volume; the percentage has steadily declined to 38.6% in 2002 and 33.7% in 2007. The influx of new technologies coupled with current economic conditions will probably mean a continued pull back in any incremental ad dollars allocated to local media.

Another factor has been the consolidation that has taken place over the past fifteen years with media companies and prominent advertisers, such as banking and other financial services, shifting their emphasis from local to national media. The concerns of big national retail outlets and their financial impact on local “mom & pop” shops persists. Industry consolidation has been the result of improved communications and technology. This has had an impact on the media allocation decisions of banks, hotels, restaurants, retail outlets and others. The current economic environment has caused some prominent retail advertisers to file for bankruptcy protection while others have closed their doors. The growth of new technology has had an impact on local television, local radio and newspapers.

Ad revenue of local television stations have been impacted not only by the end of the political season last fall, but also by the automotive industry including dealerships. The automotive industry that usually can contribute upwards of one-third of a local station’s ad revenue have had their ad budgets curtailed significantly. Other top local TV spenders have also curtailed their ad spending due to the economic downturn. Industry analysts estimate that local TV revenue could drop by 20% to 30% in 2009.

Another factor on local TV ad dollars has been fueled by technology. The growth of cable networks has had as much of an impact in audience erosion with local stations as with broadcast networks nationally. The major difference is satellite television. National ads appear across the country on both cable and satellite providers. There is however, no alternative for local advertisers with satellite providers. Local advertisers can use local cable, but because of satellite they penetrate on average only 60% of the market. Moreover, marketers are using the growing number of national and niche cable networks that are more targeted and can be less expensive than ad time on local TV, as well as other less costly outlets.

Since many local stations are affiliates of the broadcast networks, they rely on content from them. With cable and broadband video as alternatives, the networks have begun to explore the possibility of bypassing their affiliates and using their cable partners or websites as a potential distribution outlet. This would have a tremendous impact on the programs on local television. Another factor is Nielsen’s plan to eliminate diaries (and possibly sweeps) across all 210 TV markets, replacing many markets with meters. Traditionally, diary keepers are more likely to report watching broadcast stations than cable. With continual audience measurement instead of the quarterly sweeps, stations are now pressured to provide top notch programming throughout the year to maintain ad revenue.

Ten years ago, local radio was finishing a wave of unprecedented consolidation and was flush with ad dollars, mainly from Internet companies. The ad dollars dropped precipitously after the dot com bubble collapsed in 2001. The wave of consolidation was also criticized for creating “cookie-cutter” radio formats, increased ad rates and the homogenization was criticized by many who complained radio had lost its localization.

Local radio faces challenges from new technologies such as satellite radio, online radio, podcasts, music-oriented websites and perhaps the biggest threat, MP3 players. (Unlike television, HD radio has not caught on with consumers). While satellite radio has been having financial difficulties, Sirius and XM have merged with 20 million subscribers. Online radio continues to grow with content provided that is either rebroadcast from the broadcast stations or programming available exclusively online. According to Arbitron and Edison Media Research, 33 million Americans listen to a webcast each week. In 2008 The Pew Internet & American Life Project found that 19% of all web users have downloaded a podcast. Another factor is the popularity of MP3 Players and other handheld devices that offer music and other content to consumers. Over one-third of Americans have an MP3 Player including over 60% of young adults. Satellite, Internet, podcasts and MP3 Players all know no local geographic boundaries or rely on antennas. Now more than ever, younger people are hearing songs for the first time on a device other than the radio.

According to The Radio Advertising Bureau, ad revenue for local radio dropped by 10% in 2008 compared to the previous year. Revenue for online radio grew by 7% during 2008. Industry forecasters predict radio will have a difficult time in 2009 although online could continue to be a bright spot. Similar to local television, automotive has been a heavy supporter of the medium. Another heavy supporter has been local businesses. Many have been hit hard by the current economic conditions and have curtailed their marketing budgets.

Similar to local television, local radio is undergoing a transformation on how audience data is collected. Arbitron has been replacing diaries with meters across many major markets. The change in methodology has had an impact on the currency. Arbitron claims that 100 diary rating points is equal to 70 meter rating points.

Another local medium that has been going thorough a difficult transitional period is newspapers. The medium has been beset by declining circulation and ad revenue. The circulation of many daily newspapers has been dropping about 3%-5% each year. The drop in circulation impacts ad revenue which accounts for 80% of their bottom line. Ad revenue among major newspapers has reportedly dropped by 15% over the past year. Even more pronounced was the decline in classified ad dollars, which has dropped by 30%. The Associated Press reports that in a recent 2½ month period, four newspaper publishers and 33 daily newspapers have declared bankruptcy protection.

In response, many publishers have shrunk the size of their newspapers, reduced the number of newsroom employees, put newspapers up for sale, published free newspapers to get young people into the habit of reading one, allowed for ads on the front page, as well as other strategies designed to grow revenues.

Many people who have dropped their newspaper subscription are now getting their news online. Every major newspaper now has a compatible website. Unlike newspapers, their websites do not have to concern themselves with printing and distribution costs. In December 2008, Pew Research announced that the Internet had surpassed newspapers as a source for national and international news.

The continued presence of newspapers online continues to be felt. Average monthly unique audience figures for newspaper websites grew by nearly 7.3 million in 2008 to 67.3 million visitors, an increase of 12.1% over 2007. Newspapers however, face competition online from other news related media, as well as blogs from consumer journalists. Some have criticized the policy of the newspaper industry of giving free content online while charging people for the printed edition.

Things are not all doom and gloom for local media. Tens of billions of dollars are still spent on the yellow pages, direct mail newspapers as well as local TV and radio stations. There are still numerous companies that have a finite geographic area of distribution and rely exclusively on local media. Millions of people still appreciate local media’s coverage of weather, traffic and community events. Local media is still used to test market a new product or experiment with a new creative execution. Marketers still rely on local media when the national media schedule under performs in important markets. Advertisers can also test the impact of different spending levels on sales. Marketers still use local media to target a specific ethnic group. Presumably, once the economy strengthens, ad dollars will return to local television, radio and newspapers.

Similar to other industries local media is undergoing a transformation. Although marketers are allocating more of their ad dollars nationally, new opportunities have been evolving locally that are more geographically narrower than the footprint of any TV market, metro, cable system or even zip code. With the continuing emergence of digital media, many marketers also covet the amount of behavioral data to be uncovered while more effectively targeting geographically.

For example, many cable operators and satellite companies have the ability to collect second-by-second viewing data from digital set top boxes. By collecting this viewing data, marketers will be able to uncover such information as whether their ads are being watched in their entirety and can eventually be used to hyper-target with ads that resonate most with viewers down to the household or even individual television set level.

Both broadband video and web radio while providing marketers with a national (or even global) footprint are also becoming available. These local ads can be inserted on a geo-demographic basis by using consumer information (e.g., zip codes) or IP technology. Online radio and broadband video consumption will continue to grow as more content becomes available and consumers become further acclimated to it.

A medium that is having a revival is outdoor media, fueled by digital out-of-home media, placed based advertising and guerilla marketing. Local video ads can appear in movie theaters, taxi cabs, gas stations and retail outlets to name a few. In-store product placement will become more targeted with tailored ad messages for each aisle.

Another local medium that has huge potential for marketers is the cell phone. With the handheld device becoming ubiquitous, marketers by using wi-fi networks, GPS and cell phone towers, will be able to target consumers based upon proximity to points of sale; their activities and other patterns can be measured by these smart phones. After all, local media is about the whereabouts of consumers.

There are concerns about privacy and personal information being used for marketing purposes, a huge factor. Nonetheless, the next generation of media is expected undercover more granular and personal information based of the behavioral patterns of consumers. This will result in more relevant ad messages on an individual basis. You can’t get more local than that.

admin Uncategorized Advertising, Digital, Local TV, Research

The Presidential inauguration will be the biggest video event of all time, we just won’t know how big.

At 12 noon (EST) on Tuesday, January 20th Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the oath of office to Barack Obama, making him the 44th President of The United States. Besides all the pageantry and balls, the inauguration marks the conclusion of the longest, costliest and most extraordinary political campaigns in history.

Campaign strategists are trendsetters in micromarketing niche consumers (or voters) and in that regard, the Obama campaign was exceptional. In fact, Barack Obama’s campaign strategy was so effective, that in an Advertising Age poll advertisers voted him “Marketer of the Year” for 2008. Barack Obama had succeeded Nintendo and beat out Apple, Nike, Coors and other “products”. The reason for the industry recognition was Obama’s effective use of both traditional media such as direct mail, television and radio blended with new media platforms such as, e-mail blasts, paid search, text messages, social networks and even video games. Meanwhile, his competitors relied primarily on the tried and true mainstream media campaign strategy. Obama’s team was especially effective in attracting “millennials” (18 to 29 year olds) by using a combination of grassroots marketing and these new media channels available. The result not only made younger Americans vote, but also encouraged them to become part of the political process by volunteering. All this media strategy enabled Obama to become a household name and eventually President from a relatively obscure freshman Senator.

Media pundits have concluded that if Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first “Radio President” and John F. Kennedy was the first “Television President” than Barack Obama will be the first “Internet President”. This brings us to January 20th, the oath of office and subsequent inaugural address. This will undoubtedly be among the most watched video events ever. However, we won’t really know just how big a video event it will be. The reason is lack of viewing information across the three screens, television, computer and cell phone, in which the speech can be watched. This issue forced NBC Universal to create Total Audience Measurement Index (or TAMI), which used several audience research companies to measure the various video platforms available that it developed for the Summer Olympics. The inauguration will be available on far more channels than even The Olympics.

Nielsen has been the currency of television ratings for years, (27 million viewers watched Richard Nixon’s first inauguration in January 1969 on the three broadcast networks). With the few exceptions however, Nielsen’s sample consists almost exclusively of in-home viewing in sample households. With Obama’s inauguration occurring on a Tuesday afternoon, people across the country will be watching the event on television sets outside the home, such as offices and schools, these millions will go unmeasured.

Combine that with the millions of Americans watching the inauguration online (with the first Internet President) again at work, in school, or at hotspots around the nation and other locations. Recent major sporting events happening during work hours can gauge the impact of online viewing. According to CBS, 92% of the 4.8 million people streaming March Madness did so at work. The U.S. Open Playoff (golf) on a Monday afternoon had at least four million streams. The inauguration, will be available on far more broadband video outlets, including foreign language websites, it will much higher online numbers. While there are a couple of research companies that can measure online video, many of these websites streaming the speech will be too small for accurate measurement. In all likelihood, an aggregate “census” count all the broadband video websites carrying the speech would depict a more accurate number. Video clips of the speech will also be uploaded and viewed countless times on Facebook and YouTube (both hadn’t existed during the last Presidential inaugural) and other websites. The speech will also be e-mailed across the country and around the world.

Mobile, the third screen, will have the smallest impact on overall viewing, has the least amount of viewing data available, but is the fastest growing. With over ten million phones with video capabilities, the inauguration could draw several million viewers. In all likelihood, most mobile video viewers will be “millennials” who received all those text messages, volunteered and voted last year.

The inauguration will be a watershed event not only for the nation, but also on how Americans can now watch the speech. People will have to opportunity to watch the inauguration on various screens at any location and anytime thereafter. It could be the most watched television event outside the home. It will be the most watched event on broadband video and on mobile television. Unfortunately we will probably never really know how many total viewers there were.

badgate Uncategorized Advertising, Media Channels, Research